MLS Statistical Analysis 2.1a

I did not get to see a minute of the DC United match on Saturday. Instead of our usual recapping here, it’s time for the first installment this year of MLS Statistical Analysis. Here’s the data we’re working with, organized alphabetically by team:

From left to right: games, goals, shots, shots on goal, fouls committed, fouls suffered, and then there’s the record/points. All data as of this past Saturday’s matches.

From that, some more statistics are created:

Sorted by points per game, from left to right: goals per game, shots per game, percentage of shots that are on goal, percentage of shots that result in goals, percentage of shots on goal that result in goals, fouls suffered differential (-40 = committed 40 more fouls than suffered), points per game.

The first thing I notice is that the top four teams in PPG are from the Western Conference. DC United are .01 point per game away from being tied for third. Last year’s MLS Cup finalists are 12th and 13th in PPG.

Five teams are averaging one goal or less scored per match. As expected, the bottom three in PPG comprise 3/5 of those teams. The other two teams, New England and Houston, find themselves in 8th and 3rd in the crucial PPG category. How do you score one goal or less per match and not sink to the bottom of the league? I imagine the answer is defense, but we’ll get to that later this week.

Now we take a look at where the teams rank in the league in these statistical categories, sorted by PPG, with asterisks to indicate a tie:

The two highest scoring teams in the league, Chicago and Real Salt Lake (who I now notice I did not asterisk despite their statistical tie), fall outside the top 5 in PPG. In addition to being tied for the league lead in GPG, RSL leads outright in SPG. This isn’t leading to much success for them in the table. How do you score the most in the league and not at least crack the top five in PPG? Again, I imagine the answer is defense. At the top of the table is Chivas, the only MLS team with more than 15 points (22 to be exact), yet the only offensive category here in which they lead the league is fouls committed. Right behind them in PPG, and proving immediately that fouling doesn’t necessarily equate to winning, is Seattle and their 14th ranked fouls committed total. New York and Dallas are 1st and 2nd in fouls suffered, and 13th and 15th in PPG. Does getting fouled equate to losing? Probably not, but in the case of New York it’s fun to imagine.

Back to Seattle, they’re tied for 12th in terms of shots per game (9.7), but 2nd in shots that result in goals (14.71%) and 1st in shots on goal resulting in goals (43.48%). That means that they don’t shoot the ball often, but they make them count. On the other end of the spectrum, FC Dallas are 2nd in shots per game (12.9), but dead last in shots resulting in goals (6.8%) and shots on goal resulting in goals (17.07%). You could say that they shoot often, but ineffectively.

And now we look at DC United, 1st in the East in PPG and 5th overall. Excepting the fouling categories, United are 6th or better in every other category. Stunningly, they’re first in the league in shots that result in goals. Even Pontius Excitement can’t drag down that statistic. There isn’t much to disprove this team’s potency in the offensive end, though I feel like there will be some holes in the defensive statistics that will make us understand maybe why they aren’t getting more wins instead of settling for draws.