MLS Statistical Analysis 2.1b
May 14, 2009We’re back with MLS Statistical Analysis, this time looking at defense and goalkeeping. First we’ll look at defense. Think of it this way, Chivas’ opponents have scored 3 goals. Here’s our data, organized alphabetically by team (games, goals, shots, shots on goal, record, points – I eliminated fouls because the data would be the same) — all stats as of Thursday morning:
From that, this, sorted by PPG (goals per game, shots per game, percentage of shots on goal, percentage of shots that result in goals, percentage of shots on goal resulting in goals, points per game):
Chivas are far and away the premier team in the league in the overall standings, 8 points clear of 2nd place DC United. They’re first overall in points per game allowed, but close on their heels are Chicago and DC. Why? Chicago and DC both are earning a lot of draws and not losing matches (Chicago has 0 losses, DC just 1). The top three teams in this PPG category are the only sides in MLS surrendering less than a point per match.
At the other end of the table, surrendering over 2 points per contest and propping up the overall table, are FC dallas and San Jose. They’re also the only two teams allowing over 1.75 GPG. Hey, Quakes, allowing 2 goals per game is not going to get you to the playoffs.
Here’s how the teams rank in each category, sorted by PPG. Asterisks represent ties.
Chivas are number one in 4 of 6 categories. What jumps out at me about that is that they’re 11th in shots allowed (11.1), but still 1st in goals per game, shots that are goals, and shots on goals that result in goals. That tells me that their defense is not all that solid, but their goalkeeping is. Really? Zach Thornton? More on him in a moment.
Despite being near the bottom in PPG allowed, New York is also evidently getting good goalkeeping. They’re 9th in shots per game allowed (10.8), but 5th or better in goals per game (5th), shots resulting in goals (5th), and shots on goal resulting in goals (3rd). It’s their offense that’s letting them down.
New England is allowing almost 5 SPG more than anyone else(15th, 17.3), but they’re not that often on goal (8th, 43.8%), and when they are on goal, they’re 4th in allowing goals (22.64%).
Now for beloved DC United. Being 3rd in PPG is great, but 10th in GPG (1.44) and 12th in SPG (11.9) is not. That the goalkeeping has been mediocre (6th in both shots resulting in goals [12.15%] and shots on goal resulting in goals [27.08%]). I’m not sure who I should take more of an issue with, the defenders or the goalkeepers. For now, both.
Now, for the goalkeeping, organized by GAA, goals allowed average (games, goals allowed, goals allowed average, shots faced, saves, save percentage, record):
Now there are some statistics that don’t add up, starting with Chivas. Zach Thornton, the only Goats GK to play this year, has faced 40 shots and made 35 saves, yet Chivas have only allowed 3 goals. My only guess is that it means that Thornton was beaten but another Chivas player cleared it off the line on two occasions. At any rate, Thornton’s 87.5 save percentage and paltry 0.33 GAA are the stuff of MVPs, especially when you consider that Chivas are tied for 8th in goals per game (1.33). Offensively they don’t need to score very often if their goalkeeper is playing like he is.
Real Salt Lake have a team goalkeeping save percentage of 53.57, worst in the league by more than 5%. Luckily for them they’re 5th in shots on goal allowed defensively (9.9) and 3rd in percentage of shots allowed on goal (35.44%). Good defense, poor goalkeeping?
Touching on the Revs again, they’re 3rd in team goalkeeper save percentage (75.47%). They’ve allowed the most shots on goal (53), which doesn’t seem so bad when you consider that that number is just 3 more than New York, 14th in that category. But then you realize that those 53 shots have come in two fewer games (7) than New York’s 50 in nine games. If New England keeps allowing shots on goal at this rate, their goalkeepers will have faced 68 shots in nine games. That’s quite a disparity.
Back to DC United. The goalkeeping is 6th in save percentage (68.75), tied for 11th in GAA (1.44). That’s mediocre compared to the rest of the league. Could we have expected more? I’m not sure. It’s good enough, right now, for 1st in the East, but it’s going to have to improve quite a bit for me to think that this team’s defense and goalkeeping is going to be enough to succeed in the postseason, because right now its offense (3rd in GPG) is carrying the load. We’ll look again at all three statistical facets of the game as we approach the midpoint of the season to see who’s improving, who’s stagnant, and who is getting worse.
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