MLS Statistical Analysis 2012 (4.1)

MLS Statistical Analysis makes its return for the 2012 season. If you haven’t read it before, it’s a look inside the numbers to try to link a team’s statistical performance with its success (or lack thereof.) As usual, the first graphic is the data I used to put together the stats. It’s organized alphabetically.

(GP = games played / G = goals / S = shots / SOG = shots on goal / FC = fouls committed / FS = fouls suffered)

A few numbers jump off of the page right away.

1) Sporting Kansas City’s the only team to shoot more than 100 times (105) thus far in the season. Montreal is the next closest (98), but they’ve played one more match.

2) Only three teams, New York (16), Real Salt Lake (11), and San Jose (10), have scored double digit goals.

3) In seven games, Montreal has committed far and away the most fouls in the league, with 112. No MLS team has committed more than 87.

From this data, we got the following statistics, organized by PPG (Points Per Game):

(GPG = goals per game / SPG = shots per game / %SOG = percentage of shots that are on goal / %S=G = percentage of shots resulting in goals / %SOG=G = percentage of shots on goal resulting in goals / FD = foul differential, fouls suffered minus fouls committed)

Kansas City have a 100% record, with 6 wins from 6 matches. Toronto are at the absolute other end of the spectrum, with zero points from five matches. Four teams are averaging 2.00 points per game (Kansas City, San Jose, Real Salt Lake, Seattle), and five are averaging 1.0 or less (New England, Philadelphia, Portland, Montreal, Toronto.)

Kansas City’s shooting a blistering 17.50 times per game, which is 3.10 more times per game than 2nd place Los Angeles, but those shots aren’t going in very often (8.57%), which is something that is analyzed further in the rankings, sorted by PPG, with the top 3 of each category in blue and the bottom 3 in orange…

Kansas City’s leading the league in PPG and SPG, but isn’t doing too great in the other categories. Usually that points to defensive dominance, which we’ll delve into later this week. All of those shots are on frame 35.24% of the time (11th), and going in the goal at a rate that places them 10th in the league.

Red Bull New York are performing extremely well in most offensive categories. They’re not shooting a lot (10.83 SPG, 13th), but they’re scoring 2.67 goals per game, finding the frame 49.23% of the time, scoring on 24.62% of their shots, and 50% of their shots on goal are goals, all good for 1st in the league. With all of this offensive consistency, you’d think they’d be doing better than a PPG rate of 6th (1.67 PPG), so I have a feeling that their defense will show poorly.

Toronto is dead last in all shooting related statistics except for SPG (13.60, 4th); They’re scoring 0.40 GPG, finding the frame 25% of the time, scoring on 2.94% of their shots, and scoring on 11.76% of their shots on goal.

Montreal are shooting a lot (14 SPG, 3rd) and finding the frame consistently (39.8%, 3rd), but they’re not scoring when they shoot overall (6.12%, 17th), or when it’s on frame (15.38%, 17th).

D.C. United are not performing particularly well or particularly poorly in any category. At best, they’re 6th in SPG (OH MY GOD, they’re SHOOTING!) with 13 shots per game. At worst, they’re 15th in percentage of shots on goal (32.05%). The rest of the shooting rankings are in the 9-11 range. I’ll be interested to see how the defensive and goalkeeping statistics end up looking. We’ll get to those later this week, for DCU and the rest of the league.

D.C. United Women topple Long Island Rough Riders

After scoring a goal just minutes after the kickoff of the second half, D.C. United Women looked in control of their match against the Long Island Rough Riders with a 2-0 lead. In the end it would take some desperate defending and a little luck for United to hold on and escape with a 2-1 home win.

Long Island looked the most likely to score early. Their first chance of the game came in the fifth minute when winger Jen Leaverton drifted away from United left back Megan Watson and down the right side, before centering the ball for forward Brooke DeRosa. DeRosa, who scored one of the Long Island goals in their 2-0 win over United earlier this month, was only able to shoot meekly at United goalkeeper Kerri Butler. United’s answer to that only took six minutes to come, as midfielder Danielle Malagari played a ball over the top of the Long Island defense to forward Christie Welsh. Welsh entered the area and cooly shot over the Krista Thorn, the rushing Long Island goalkeeper, to give United a 1-0 lead. Malagari and Welsh nearly teamed up to tally again in the 24th minute, when Malagari headed a Thorn goal kick to Welsh, but Welsh’s eventual low shot was saved by Thorn. Both Malagari and Welsh would exit after the 38th minute due to lingering injury issues in favor of midfielder Aly Shaughnessy and forward Katie Watson. United took their 1-0 lead to halftime.

The second half was barely underway before United struck again. Forward Amalya Clayton received a Katie Watson pass on the left inside the area and beat Thorn to the far post in the 48th minute. Despite conceding chunks of possession to Long Island at times, United seemed comfortable with their lead. In the 65th minute it was Long Island making things interesting, as a DeRosa cross from the defensive left found Leaverton just yards from goal to score and cut the United lead in half. United should have had a chance to restore their lead just four minutes later, but referee Ron Harnage did not award a penalty kick when Long Island defender Sade Ayinde leaped and landed on Clayton just inside the edge of the area on the right. Clayton fell under Ayinde and United players and coaches appealed, but no penalty came.

The remainder of the match was played mostly in the United defensive half. A 70th minute Shaughnessy giveaway in deep midfield nearly led to a Rough Riders equalizer, but the defense was able to scramble it away. Long Island again nearly equalized in the 81st minute when Ayinde ventured forward, fended off defenders, and hit a sliding shot from 16 yards that beat Butler but hit the post and bounced back into play. United were able to clear. Just a minute later, DeRosa looked to test Butler, but her shot floated just over the bar. As the second half entered stoppage time, Long Island had three or four successive opportunities to shoot in the United area, but all were stopped by United defensive interventions, and Butler was not bothered.

When the final whistle blew, there was some visible relief from United players and coaches. The win is a big one in the W-League Northeast Division standings, which now show United in 3rd place with 11 points behind Long Island and the New Jersey Wildcats who are tied for first (14 points.) United has played one more game than each of those teams, and has two left to play. There is still a chance that United will earn one of the two playoffs spots allotted to the division, but they’ll need help in the way of Long Island or New Jersey dropping points as their seasons wind down. It can be done, but United will also need to take care of their own business in their final two games.

MLS Statistical Analysis 3.2a – Offense

It’s finally time again to delve into MLS Statistical Analysis. We’ll do the offense Thursday and defense Friday. Last time out, all of the teams had played between three and six matches, and this time the numbers are between 12 and 17. Here’s the data I worked with, organized alphabetically by team.
(GP = games played / G = goals / S = shots / SOG = shots on goal / FC = fouls committed / FS = fouls suffered)

Seattle have played three matches more than Philadelphia, but they’ve shot nearly 100 times more (220) than the Union (127.) Kansas City and Real Salt Lake are tied for the least games played in MLS (12), but Real are 11 points better (21 to 10.) Of course some of that has to do with the fact that Kansas City opened with a massive road trip while Livestrong Sporting Park was constructed. The other part of that has to do with the fact that Kansas City aren’t very good. Just three teams have scored 20 or more goals: Los Angeles (23), New York (21), and San Jose (20.) On we go to the statistics we use for the rankings, sorted by PPG (points per game)…
(GPG = goals per game / SPG = shots per game / %SOG = percentage of shots that are on goal / %S=G = percentage of shots resulting in goals / %SOG=G = percentage of shots on goal resulting in goals / FD = foul differential, fouls suffered minus fouls committed)

 

Los Angeles have played the most games in MLS (17) and because of that it makes sense that they’d have earned the most points (31), but they also have the best PPG (1.82). On the other end of the spectrum is Vancouver (0.73). Only two teams are shooting less than 10 times per game: Colorado (9.93) and Philadelphia (9.77), but both are in the top third of the league in PPG. Let’s move onto the rankings, sorted by PPG, with the top 3 of each category in blue and the bottom 3 in orange…

 

Immediately I notice that none of the top four teams in PPG are in the top three in GPG. Los Angeles is the best (4th, 1.35) of that bunch, and the other three are 8th or worse. San Jose as a whole are at the top of the league in three of the offensive (non-PPG or foul differential) categories, leading GPG (1.54), shots resulting in goals (12.82%) and shots on goal resulting in goals (36.36%). Conversely, Columbus are bottom three in all but one offensive category, coming in at 16th in GPG (1.00), shots on goal (31.87%) and shots on goal resulting in goals (24.14%), and they’re 17th in shots resulting in goals (7.69%). But at least Columbus are only 10th in PPG, compared to New England who are experiencing even worse offensive performance (dead last in two categories, bottom three in two others), and are 16th in PPG.
As much as I hate to admit it, New York have come a long way since the first Statistical Analysis. They were last in three offensive categories and 17th in another after playing 4 games, but now they’re fourth or better in three. The biggest improvement has come in GPG, from last with 0.50 goals to second with 1.50. I imagine much of that has to do with their improvement in finding the frame, from 17th with 31.03% of shots finding the frame to second with 39.43%.

It’s great to see D.C. United in the top three in the league in three offensive categories. The Black and Red are scoring 1.38 GPG (3rd), and their percentage of shots on goal (41.26%) leads the league. This all comes despite shooting only 11.00 times per game (15th), which is exactly the same number of shots they averaged after four games, but that number was good enough for 12th then. Despite their accuracy when shooting, the shots that do find the frame are only going in 30.15% of the time, good for 8th. What’s troubling is that this team is actually shooting less than they did last year (11.23 SPG). What’s it going to take to get these guys to just shoot the ball when they’re in range?
Next up we’ll get to the defense and goalkeeping. I expect troubling numbers in the goalkeeping department for D.C., strong defensive numbers for Philadelphia, Real Salt Lake and Colorado, and very troubling defensive and goalkeeping numbers for Kansas City, and potentially Chivas.

D.C. United Women fall behind early, lose 2-1

It’s always hard to write a recap of a match that I didn’t see. I usually rely on the box score to give me an idea of who was at least statistically dominant, but even that isn’t up yet. All I have for D.C. United Women’s match against the North Jersey Valkyries is the D.C. United Women Twitter feed, and that suggests that D.C. were dominant, held a majority of possession and hit the bar four times during the match.

United fell behind 2-0 before the first half was halfway through. The United goal came through Jill Porto, assisted by Danielle Malagari. After halftime, the Valkyries bunkered defensively and held on for the win.

Next weekend United travels to face the Long Island Rough Riders on Saturday, June 18th, and the New Jersey Rangers the next day (yes, New Jersey has three teams.)

D.C. United Women surrender late goal, draw 1-1 with New Jersey Wildcats

After what had been 78 minutes of even soccer, D.C. United Women looked to earn all three points in their first ever home game by taking a 1-0 lead over the New Jersey Wildcats through substitute forward Christie Welsh’s goal in the 79th minute. Six minutes later the score was 1-1, which is how the game would end as the teams split the points.

The kickoff of the match was delayed about two hours by lightning and thunder associated with a passing thunderstorm. The fans were pulled out of the stands and the players, who had been warming up, were pulled off the field. Kickoff came shortly after 9:00pm, and New Jersey nearly took the lead on four minutes when United goalkeeper Didi Haracic’s clearance of a backpass was errant and went directly to a Wildcats player. Haracic recovered and made a save on the ensuing shot. United’s left midfielder Katie Menzie looked dangerous early, taking players on and winning 50/50 balls defensively. Her involvement led to the Wildcats swapping Kylee Rossi, the scorer in the Wildcats 1-0 triumph over D.C., from left midfield to right, with an emphasis on defending Menzie more attentively. On 13 minutes, another D.C. United error, this time coming when left back Brittany Cummins chested a ball down on the edge of the six yard box before her clearance struck one of her own players and headed towards the goal. Haracic scrambled across and dove at it, but it went wide and behind for a corner.

Despite possessing the ball well in the first half, United did not often trouble Wildcats goalkeeper Caroline Williams. Lone forward Tiffany Brown should take some of the blame for that, as many times her short and easy passes were inaccurate, and she did not hold the ball well against defenders. In the 35th minute, United were denied a penalty kick when the extended arm of a Wildcats defender made contact with the ball just inside the area. Players appealed for the penalty to be given, but the referee waved off protests. Mistakes in the United defensive third nearly came back to bite them again, when Cummins kept Wildcats forward Jessica Fuccello onside in the 42nd minute, but Fuccello’s close shot was saved by a sprawling Haracic. Nearly undone by their own mistakes, United could have considered themselves lucky to be level at 0-0 at the half.

Shortly after the start of the second half, forward Christie Welsh began warming up for United, undoubtedly to hold the ball better and allow the midfielders to get forward. In the 60th minute, midfielder Danielle Malagari (co-captains with defender Marisa Abegg) played defender Bri Hovington behind on a ball to the corner. Hovington beat a defender before sending a cross through the area that eluded everyone, but resulted in a collision with Williams who remained on the ground injured, before being substituted for reserve goalkeeper Emmy Simpkins. Malagari was instrumental in facilitating the attack, often sitting just on top of the back four, finding open areas to receive the ball and moving it forward from there. She enabled the two other central midfielders, Hayley Siegel (until she switched places with Katie Menzie) and Christine Nairn to be more adventurous going forward until she herself was substituted for Katie Cramp in the 72nd minute. Welsh entered the game for Brown at the same time, and that substitution paid nearly instant dividends. Hovington played a long ball over the top to Welsh with the Wildcats defense standing still in anticipation of the offside flag being raised. Welsh kept playing, collected the ball, rounded Simpkins, and blasted the ball into the net to give United the lead. The lead was short lived though, as the Wildcats drew even on Andrea Lopez’s looping effort that flew over a diving Haracic and ducked under the bar in the 85th minute. Lopez did not see the end of the match after being ejected in stoppage time. United had one more good chance to retake the lead, with Nairn winning the ball in the shallow midfield in the 87th minute, advancing on goal and shooting from distance, causing Simpkins to make a diving save to her right.

The draw levels United’s record at 1-1-1. They certainly had an opportunity to win, and will probably be kicking themselves for letting the game get away, and letting New Jersey have some easy chances in the early going. This appears to be a solid team with potential to win plenty of games if they can sort out the forward situation. Their next match is this Sunday, June 12, on the road at the 5th place North Jersey Valkyries. The next United home match is Saturday, June 25th, against the New York Magic.

Keeping up with the locals

I’ve been somewhat delinquent in following other local semi-pro clubs in the area, so here’s a comprehensive review of the seasons thus far of the teams in the area.

D.C. United Women
Record: 1-1-0
Standing: 3rd in the W-League Northeast Division, Eastern Conference
Update: United recovered nicely from their 1-0 season opening loss to New Jersey by winning 3-0 at New York. The club will look to avenge that initial loss in their first ever home game tomorrow night.
Next home game: 6/9 vs. New Jersey @ Maryland Soccerplex, Boyds, MD.

Northern Virginia Royals
Record: 2-4-0
Standing: 4th in the PDL South Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference
Update: After opening their season with a three game losing streak, the Royals won two games in a row over Carolina Dynamo and Fredericksburg Hotspur. Just when things were starting to look up, they suffered a thumping 3-0 defeat to Carolina last Saturday.
Next home game: 6/8 vs. Real Maryland @ Hellwig Memorial Field Stadium, Manassas, VA.

Northern Virginia Majestics
Record: 0-1-1
Standing: 6th in the W-League Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference
Update: The Majestics earned their only point of the season thus far by scoring two goals in the second half to earn a 3-3 draw with Dayton. They have two games to play of a three game homestand, the last of which being part of a doubleheader with the Royals on 6/18.
Next home game: 6/11 vs. Charlotte @ Hellwig Memorial Field Stadium, Manassas, VA.

Real Maryland Monarchs
Record: 4-1-1
Standing: 1st in the PDL South Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference
Update: Real Maryland are currently riding a three match unbeaten streak (2-1-0) that began after their only loss of the season, 1-0 to the West Virginia Chaos. The Chaos appeared to have the Monarchs’ number in their next meeting after racing out to a 3-0 lead, but Real Maryland scored three goals in three minutes to salvage a 3-3 draw.
Next home game: 6/11 vs. Virginia Beach @ Richard Montgomery High School, Rockville, MD.

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D.C. United fans may be interested to know that the ASA Chesapeake Charge of the WPSL (Women’s Premier Soccer League) list Alexa Quaranta on their roster, who turns out to be a sister of Jenna Quaranta who plays at University of Maryland – Baltimore County. Those two are Santino Quaranta’s cousins.

Hottest WPS Player Poll: Finals

Twenty WPS players have been whittled down to eight. It’s time to crown the Hottest WPS Player. We started with four groups of five, and the voting went this way:

Group A
Heather Mitts – 40.7%
Lauren Sesselmann – 22.2%
Becky Sauerbrunn – 14.8%
Lauren Cheney – 11.1%
Keeley Dowling – 11.1%
Heather Mitts winning the group was no surprise, but Lauren Cheney not making it out of the group was. I wonder whether she might have done better if the voting had occurred after the goal she scored on Sunday, because that was hot. Mitts was the group winner with the widest margin of victory.

Group B
Taryn Hemmings – 32.1%
Bianca D’Agostino – 32.1%
Hope Solo – 28.6%
Kelley O’Hara – 7.1%
Carli Lloyd – 0%
This was the closest race for the finals, with Solo barely missing out on a three way tie. That Solo did not move on is a surprise, as two relatively unknown players combine to keep her out.

Group C
Amy Rodriguez – 28%
Leslie Osborne – 28%
Katherine Reynolds – 24%
Ashlyn Harris – 20%
Meghan Schnur – 0%
I never thought this group would be so close overall, save Schnur. Harris being eliminated means no goalkeepers move on. Rodriguez and Osborne were the chalk, though Reynolds made an upset bid.

Group D
Alex Morgan – 46.2%
Cat Whitehill – 38.5%
Carrie Dew – 11.5%
Tina DiMartino – 3.9%
Marian Dalmy – 0%
Morgan and Whitehill simply trounced this group. Morgan was the winner with the highest percentage of votes.

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So on we go to the finals. No fluff, just photos. You know the drill.

Heather Mitts

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Lauren Sesselmann

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Taryn Hemmings

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Bianca D’Agostino

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Amy Rodriguez

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Leslie Osborne

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Alex Morgan

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Cat Whitehill

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Polls close Thursday, June 9th.

D.C. United Women 3 – 0 New York Magic

D.C. United women are returning home after a 3-0 win over the New York Magic. Two goals from Christine Nairn sandwiched a goal by Bri Hovington as United earned its first ever win. There is no indication yet that there will be a video highlights package, but I will keep my eyes peeled.

D.C. United Women Starters
G: Didi Haracic
D: Marisa Abegg, Bri Hovington, Jerica DeWolfe, Brittany Cummins
M: Danielle Malagari, Christy Bush, Christine Nairn, Katie Menzie
F: Katie Watson, Tiffany Brown

(subs not listed)

D.C. United Women on the road again

D.C. United Women head to the campus of Iona College to play the New York Magic this afternoon at 4:00pm. United will be looking to rebound from their late 1-0 loss to the New Jersey Wildcats, while New York are coming off of two straight losses, the most recent of which coming 4-0 at home to the Long Island Rough Riders.

I am presuming that previously unavailable United players Christie Welsh and Hayley Siegel have been approved and will be available for selection. The team’s roster on the W-League site has a few new names on it, such as Madyson Brown, Amalya Clayton, and Elisa Davidson, which at the very least makes them substantially deeper from a personnel standpoint.

A look at the New York roster doesn’t yield many recognizable names, if any at all, but I’d suggest that United stop Rashidah Sherman, who has scored four goals on 14 shots in three games. No other Magic player has scored, and only one player has an assist.

Despite not having yet seen United play, I have a feeling that this is a winnable match for them. New Jersey defeated New York 3-1, and that same New Jersey team needed an 88th minute goal to beat United. New York are not advertising any stream for this game, so I can only hope that the D.C. United Women Twitter feed will be updating as the game goes along.

DCU Primer: The kids are alright(?)

D.C. United enter the month of June having gone undefeated (2-2-0) in league play in May, a record which helped vault them to fourth in the East despite having played two fewer games (11) than third place Houston, and one fewer than second place New York. Tonight United face off against the Los Angeles Galaxy at Home Depot Center.

Team News:

D.C. United
Injured: M – Branko Boskovic (ACL), D – Marc Burch (hamstring), M – Junior (ankle), D – Devon McTavish (concussion), M – Santino Quaranta (concussion), D – Jed Zayner (hamstring)
Absent: D – Dejan Jakovic (international duty)
Questionable: Kurt Morsink (ankle)

Galaxy
Injured: D – Sean Alvarado (knee), D – Leonardo (knee)
Absent: G – Donovan Ricketts (international duty), M – Landon Donovan (international duty)
Questionable: F – Adam Cristman (knee)

Los Angeles ended the month of May with a four game winning streak and a six game unbeaten streak after starting the month with a 2-1 loss to FC Dallas. The team that will take the field tonight will not be the same team that ran up that impressive record, as Landon Donovan and Donovan Ricketts will be with their respective national teams, taking Donovan’s league leading eight goals and Ricketts’ 0.55 goals against average with them. The Galaxy will lean on Josh Saunders in goal (1.5 GAA in four starts, with a 2-1-1 record), and they have more than enough firepower to make up for Donovan’s absence with players such as Juan Pablo Angel, David Beckham and Juninho. Of course none of those three field players have the speed of Donovan, or are as much of a threat in one v. one situations, which is something that no one Galaxy player can replace. How Los Angeles makes up for those absences is going to play a key role in the outcome of this match.

D.C. United received recent good news in the form of the returns to health of Dax McCarty and Charlie Davies. Coach Ben Olsen has a difficult decision on his hands over who to start up front, as Davies joins Josh Wolff and Blake Brettschneider as available potential starting forwards. On the other end of the pitch, United will likely play three rookies in defense: Chris Korb, Perry Kitchen and Ethan White. In winning at Portland, United were able to defy the notion that teams could not win when traveling coast to coast, and opted to stay out west with a short week to prepare for Los Angeles. Hopefully the players are acclimated to the time difference.

I believe the pressure tonight is going to be on the United defense in a game that is more likely to feature four goals or more than one goal or less. The kids have shown that they can rise to the occasion, but will they?